Despite driving an electric car, I still notice the gas prices at the local filling stations.

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I suppose it’s just old habit.

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As you can imagine, I was a bit thrown when I saw the price of gas had soared from $3.19 to $3.49.  

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I knew why it happened, and I absolutely expected to see an increase in the price at the pump.  But I think it was the image of the sign that really put it into perspective for me. 

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Of course, if the war in Iran ends quickly, we can expect those prices to fall just as dramatically as they rose.  Yet the threat of surging gas prices will always remain.  Whether it’s geopolitical conflict or natural disasters, oil production is always vulnerable to events beyond our control.

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This has long been one of the most convincing arguments for the transition from internal combustion to electrification.  And it’s actually one of the reasons China has been so aggressive not only in instigating that transition in the Middle Kingdom, but also in financially supporting its EV industry.  

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Indeed, this is the direction in which the world of transportation is heading.  And while the U.S. has been a laggard, the world is moving forward with this transition.  And with this recent spike in oil prices, the world is once again paying attention to the realities of our overreliance on oil.

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Who runs the show?

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To be sure, this latest war in the Middle East will not be the final nail in the coffin for internal combustion, but it will instigate many world leaders to expedite the phase-out of this outdated vehicle technology.

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The question for us, of course, is which car manufacturers are most likely to benefit the most from this.

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In the U.S., it’s a bit hard to tell given the reduced policy support for the EV sector.  Still, even without generous tax credits, consumers are still buying EVs.  Just not at the same level we saw over the past five years. 

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In 2025, the top five best-selling EVs in the U.S. came from Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), GM (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), Hyundai, and Honda (NYSE: HMC).

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In 2026, Tesla will likely maintain its advantage. However, the company’s CEO has alienated a lot of potential customers due to his support of the Trump administration and general comments online that have scared off the types of folks who would typically be eager to own an electric car.  This has provided an inroad for Ford, GM, Hyundai, Honda, and Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN).  

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How much market share those companies will be able to grab in 2026, however, remains to be seen, especially when you consider the fact that new offerings from Ford (which are expected to offer longer ranges and lower prices) won’t be hitting the showrooms until 2027/2028.  

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And then there’s China

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Outside of the U.S., China automaker BYD (OTCBB: BYDDF) remains the big dog in this race.  And the reason is simple: it controls more of the EV supply chain than almost any of its competitors. Aggressive pricing, strong domestic demand, and a rapidly expanding global footprint have put BYD in a position to dominate for the foreseeable future.

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That being said, BYD isn’t the only major EV exporter worth keeping a close eye on.  Also consider …

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  • NIO (NYSE: NIO) - Although still quite small in volume, NIO exports premium EVs from China to European markets such as Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands.
  • Geely Group (OTCBB: GELYF) - Geely exports EVs under several brands, including Volvo, Polestar, Zeekr, and Geometry, reaching markets across Europe and Asia.

  • XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) - XPeng has been expanding exports across Europe and Southeast Asia, particularly with its advanced driver-assistance technology.

Over the past few years, it’s become increasingly clear that China will dominate the future of the EV market, and thus the entire auto market, as that’s the direction in which it’s heading. 

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That doesn’t mean the likes of GM, Ford, and Honda will go gently into that good night.  They won’t. But the lion’s share of new car sales will be electric in less than 20 years.  And the automakers that have a first-mover advantage today are the automakers that’ll give you the most bang for your buck along the way.

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Invest accordingly.

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