In early 2021, Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) was everywhere. Touted as a luxury EV disruptor, it merged with Churchill Capital IV in one of the most anticipated SPAC deals of the year. The pre-production valuation? $24 billion. The stock? Nearly $60 per share, before a single vehicle had rolled off the line.

The pitch was polished: high-end design, advanced battery tech, best-in-class range. Lucid was framed as a direct Tesla rival, positioned to lead the premium segment of the EV market. Early investors saw this as their moment to get in before the wave crested.

Reality Didn’t Follow the Pitch

The numbers told a different story. Lucid had promised 20,000 vehicles in its first full year. It delivered just over 6,000. As the months rolled on, expectations continued to fall. High sticker prices limited demand, and manufacturing targets were repeatedly adjusted downward. The company’s cash reserves shrank fast, leading to fresh share offerings and major shareholder dilution.

By 2024, the stock had dropped into single-digit territory. For many who bought at the top, the investment had all but evaporated.

Lucid’s arc reflects a broader pattern. The SPAC boom of 2020–2021 saw dozens of early-stage companies go public with sky-high valuations and little more than projections to back them. In Lucid’s case, the vision was grand, but the fundamentals never caught up.

Lucid’s story echoes other high-profile flops from the SPAC era. The cycle repeats:

• Pre-revenue company,
• Exaggerated forecasts,
• Aggressive valuation,
• Share dilution,
• Market pullback.

These companies don’t fail because they lack potential. They fail because they’re priced for perfection before they’ve proved anything.

Lucid, in particular, was a casualty of that mismatch between story and execution. When public markets give a premium valuation to a company that hasn’t scaled, pressure builds fast. Any misstep becomes amplified, especially when cash burn forces more dilution.